by Dr. Larry Moses
No one asked me but…I have to admit that I am a political junkie. I stayed up late to watch the Democratic candidate debate in New Hampshire. I had missed the earlier session with the Republicans so when it was repeated on Sunday afternoon I left the NFL playoffs to listen to the Republicans. This is the sick actions of a guy who once thought he had to watch every football game on television or the world would come to an end. I may need to seek counseling or go into rehab over this.
The Iowa Caucuses and debates are probably old news by now. Barrack Obama, we all know, won the Iowa Democratic Caucus and Mike Huckabee won the Republican one. Supporters of these two candidates should not get too excited as Iowa has not been a very good indicator of the final winners of the nomination of the two parties. No Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter has parlayed the Iowa Caucus into a nomination. One must remember that Iowa does not give us a true picture of what the American people are really like socially, economically, or politically. But a few things of interest came out of this early political action.
Barack Obama finished the evening with a speech that had visions of John F. Kennedy dancing in the heads of Democrats. Bringing his pretty wife and daughters to the stage was a nice touch. Camelot seemed to be rising like the Phoenix from the ashes. Still, for an old codger like me, it is hard to identify with a candidate that looks like he would have trouble getting in a movie rated higher than PG-13. I am sure he looks good to young people. Oprah’s support may have well catapulted Obama to the front as he even carried the women’s vote in Iowa.
John Edward’s second place finish was probably as surprising as Hillary dropping to third in Iowa. John said all the things necessary to keep an option for the Vice Presidency if Obama wins out. After the New Hampshire debate, I doubt if he and Hillary can team up. While Hillary finished third in the Democratic caucus, there was no indication of it in her speech at the end of the evening. Listening to her, one would have believed she had carried the day.
Watching the New Hampshire debates, one could easily observe Obama and Edwards teaming up to attack Hillary. The double team failed to work as Hillary finished first in New Hampshire. Hillary spent most of her energy attacking Obama. I don’t believe Obama or Hillary fear much from Edwards.
Hilary’s emotional display in New Hampshire was an interesting aside. It may have appealed to some of the New Hampshire women, but I doubt if the old lumberjacks were impressed. I don’t believe anyone ever doubted Hillary’s toughness but maybe this soft side helped in her campaign. However, tears can be dangerous for a candidate—asked Ed Muskie.
As for the Republicans, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney finished one—two in Iowa. All the other Republican candidates had such a small percentage of the vote; it appeared to be a two-man race. One must remember, however, that Rudy Giuliani conceded the Iowa caucus and never competed. His next to last place finish with single digit total was indicative of his disregard for Iowa. With John McCain taking New Hampshire and Mitt Romney finishing a strong second, the Republican nominating scene has grown to a three-man race. However, Rudy Giuliani has yet to be an active participant in the chase. Romney looks good in Michigan. Rudy is depending on a victory in Florida, where all old New Yorkers go to die, to jump-start his campaign.
Mike Huckabee may have carried Iowa, but he must now find support elsewhere. His “aw shucks, Oppie ain’t mad at nobody” may play well in the South and Midwest; but the people of New Hampshire were not impressed. I must admit I have trouble not visualizing Gomer Pyle when I hear him speak; however, his speech at the conclusion of the Iowa caucus was nearly presidential. I believe the political pundits who would have you believe Huckabee’s success in Iowa was due largely to the “evangelical” fervor of the Iowan have misread the religious base in Iowa. While there is a strong Christian foundation in the Iowa farmland, to equate that with the radical evangelical movement most typified by wild-eyed abortionist hating, snake handling, arsenic drinking radicals is to misread religion in Iowa. The Christian base in Iowa is much more akin to the more stodgy New England Christianity than the stereotypical radical right. Iowa is not anywhere near the buckle of the Bible belt. The Republican debate in New Hampshire turned into a tag team match with Huckabee, Thompson, and McCain triple teaming Mitt Romney. The snide remarks made during the New Hampshire debate aimed at Mitt by these three seemed to surprise Romney. At the time, Mitt looked like a deer caught in the headlights. I think this reaction was probably due to his major asset. He is a person who has very successfully filled the role of a major executive most of his life and men in that position seldom hear those types of remarks. Those with a Senate background like John McCain and Fred Thompson have lived with that on a day-to-day basis in the Senate.
As I watch the debates, I believe I could see a pattern merging in the Democratic Party; Barrack Obama and Hillary are the two major powers with Edwards hoping to hang around and become a Vice Presidential choice. However, the Republican quest is still a mad house. One must wonder when Ron Paul is going to return to the Libertarians where he belongs. Rudy continues to sit on the sidelines pinning his hopes on the large delegations like Florida, California, New York, and Ohio. Senator McCain is on the other end of the age spectrum from Barrack Obama. It is hard for me to muster much enthusiasm for some one who looks like he escaped from Highland Manor.
There are those who believe Romney’s religion will be his major handicap, but I truly believe his being electable to the governorship of Massachusetts is much more of a problem for the Republican base. What does he really believe about gun control, Roe v.Wade and the nanny state? I doubt that many will question Romney’s executive ability, but many will wonder how a real Republican maintained his conservative ideals and appeal to a state that is typified by Teddy Kennedy? All of these issues make for great entertainment.
Just to put these last few weeks in perspective there are 4,049 delegate votes at the Democratic Convention and after all the excitement of the last few weeks, Barrack Obama leads the vote count with 25 delegates, Hillary Clinton has 24 and John Edwards has 18. On the Republican side, the candidate that wins the nomination must garner 1,191 delegates. While Mitt Romney has not won any of the highly publicized events, he did carry Wyoming and is leading the Republicans with 24 delegates; Mike Huckabee is second with 18 delegates, John McCain has 10, Fred Thompson has six, and Ron Paul has two. Some fellow named Duncan Hunter picked up one delegate in Wyoming. (Don’t write, I know Duncan Hunter is a Congressman from the San Diego Area.) Maybe Rudy is wise to save his money for the larger states where he can get a bigger bang for his buck.
I believe it is way too early to form much of an opinion as to who is going to represent each of the parties in the 2008 election, but it is sure fun watching the circus.
Thought for the week…Some politicians are like slinkies; they’re harmless but you still can’t help but smile when you see them tumble down the stairs.
